The facts

  1. The policy board voted 8–1 to retain the 1.25% overnight-call-rate target. Hajime Takata dissented in favour of 1.5%; his proposal was defeated. [1][3]

  2. The new ETF-sale pace starts in January 2027. Both ¥330 billion and ¥860 billion are annual book-value figures; the bank's illustrative market-value equivalent for the new pace is about ¥2.46 trillion. [1]

  3. Sales of Japanese real-estate investment trusts remain at about ¥5 billion annually on a book-value basis. ETF sales can be temporarily adjusted or suspended in response to market conditions. [1]

  4. The median fiscal-2027 CPI forecast excluding fresh food rose to 2.6% from July's 2.4%. This is a forecast for the same measure and fiscal year, not a newly observed inflation rate. [2]

  5. At his post-meeting news conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation had reached levels consistent with the 2% target, but that sustainable, stable achievement still required anchoring inflation around it, according to Reuters's translation. [4]

  6. Ueda said future rate increases would depend on incoming data, inflation risks and financial conditions. He did not commit to a December increase or a preset number of months between hikes. [4]

Relevant context

The bank assessed underlying inflation as broadly consistent with its 2% target while warning of upside risks. Its projections exclude the proposed temporary food-and-beverage consumption-tax reduction still under deliberation. [2]

Still unconfirmed

  • The timing of the next rate change and the market effects of actual future ETF sales remain unresolved.

Corrections & updates

Update: Added Ueda's completed30 October news-conference remarks on inflation reaching target-consistent levels, the unfinished task of stable achievement and a data-dependent future rate path. A December hike remains an expectation, not a commitment from the governor.

Sources

References support the numbered facts above. Source checks: 30 Oct 2026, 08:54 UTC.

  1. Statement on Monetary Policy, 30 October 2026

    Bank of Japan · Primary source · 30 Oct 2026

    Actual policy PDF read: rate/vote, dissent, annual book-value ETF amounts, January start, market-value illustration and unchanged J-REIT pace.

  2. Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, October 2026: The Bank's View

    Bank of Japan · Primary source · 30 Oct 2026

    Actual summary and page10 forecast table/footnotes read. Brackets are medians; the fiscal-year CPI comparison and proposed-tax-cut exclusion are preserved.

  3. Analysts react to BOJ decision to keep rates steady

    Reuters, via WKZO · Reporting · 30 Oct 2026

    Actual current Reuters report read. Its 30 October dateline distinguishes it from the host's late29 October display. Analyst expectations are not adopted as confirmed future hikes.

  4. BOJ Governor Ueda's comments at news conference

    Reuters, via CNA · Reporting · 30 Oct 2026

    Actual excerpts of the completed Japanese-language news conference read in Reuters's translation. This is the same underlying owner as source 3, not another independent newsroom; the bank's policy and outlook documents remain primary sources.

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