The facts
CREA estimated 3,560 fire-pollution-attributable acute deaths and 1,750 associated with non-fire pollution in September, for a modelled total of 5,310. [1]
The reported 95% confidence interval of 4,610–6,080 applies to the combined total, not the fire-only estimate. [1]
The assessment estimated that exposure to unhealthy or hazardous air peaked at 57.8 million people; this is a peak, not the monthly average. [1]
The analysis combines gridded fine-particle estimates with 186 monitors in 118 cities, population and baseline mortality data, and short-term concentration–response functions. [1]
AFP's report independently sought comment from environmental consultant Agus Sari while attributing the mortality estimates to CREA. [2]
Relevant context
The report was released on October 29 and concerns September exposure. It is covered as a still-relevant assessment, not a newly occurring October fire death toll. [1][2]
Still unconfirmed
- The exact number of individually verified deaths attributable to the fires; the study estimates population-level health effects rather than identifying individual causes of death.
Sources
References support the numbered facts above. Source checks: 1 Nov 2026, 00:57 UTC.
- Indonesia's air pollution deaths surged by 42% in September
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air · Primary source · 29 Oct 2026
- Indonesia fire pollution killed more than 3,000 people, report finds
AFP via ABC · Reporting · 31 Oct 2026