The facts
NASA said Swift entered safe mode on 20 October at 171 miles (275 kilometres); the team then commanded operations to end ahead of re-entry. [1]
Swift launched in 2004 and studied gamma-ray bursts and other objects for 22 years; AP reported its final tally included more than 2,000 gamma-ray bursts and 1,400 exploding stars. [1][2]
NASA’s 23 October post expected re-entry in the next few weeks. AP later reported an earlier U.S. Space Force forecast around 6 November; this older estimate is superseded by CORDS’s 2 November forecast window. [1][2][4]
Aerospace Corporation’s current CORDS record, checked 4 November, forecasts re-entry at 10:19 UTC on 4 November ±2 hours. NASA’s 2 November post cites a separate Space Force estimate around 08:30 UTC ±11 hours. These are estimates, not a confirmed time or impact point. [5][6]
NASA says most of Swift should burn up but some components may survive; it places possible surviving fragments between 20.6° south and 20.6° north latitude and estimates the risk of harm to anyone on Earth at about 1 in 2,100. AP separately reported that any surviving dense debris would most likely fall over ocean. [2][5]
The CORDS page displays a broad possible ground track. It does not identify a precise re-entry point or provide its own quantified casualty-risk estimate. [6]
Still unconfirmed
- The exact re-entry time/location and whether components survive remain uncertain; NASA’s harm estimate is not location-specific.
Corrections & updates
Substantive update, 2 November: replaced the older Space Force/KeepTrack timing emphasis with Aerospace Corporation CORDS’s current 4 November 01:30 PST ±26-hour forecast. The potential ground track remains broad; no precise impact location or quantified risk is available.
Substantive update, 3 November: NASA's 2 November post and Aerospace Corporation CORDS's current prediction both place the nominal re-entry time on 4 November morning UTC, with uncertainty bands of ±11 and ±12 hours. Added NASA's 1-in-2,100 estimate of harm risk and the latitude band for possible debris. The latest CORDS page replaces its earlier ±26-hour window; no exact impact point is known.
Substantive update, 4 November: updated CORDS’s live re-entry prediction to 10:19 UTC ±2 hours. NASA’s earlier Space Force forecast remains separately attributed at about 08:30 UTC ±11 hours. Neither identifies an exact impact point.
Sources
References support the numbered facts above. Source checks: 4 Nov 2026, 07:27 UTC.
Current timing comes from CORDS; NASA’s earlier Space Force estimate is separately attributed and has a wider window. No exact ground impact location is available.
- NASA's Swift Mission Ends Ahead of Re-Entry
NASA Science · Primary source · 23 Oct 2026
Opened NASA mission update: safe-mode altitude, operations shutdown and NASA's re-entry outlook.
- NASA telescope is predicted to come crashing down after failed rescue mission
The Associated Press · Reporting · 31 Oct 2026
Opened AP report with the Space Force forecast, scientific legacy and qualified discussion of possible debris.
- SWIFT Reentry Watch as Gamma-Ray Observatory's Orbit Decays
KeepTrack · Reporting · 1 Nov 2026
Opened 1 November tracker update based on a Space-Track TIP; its 35-day window is superseded for current timing by the later CORDS forecast. It did not calculate casualty risk.
- SWIFT (NORAD 28485) re-entry prediction
The Aerospace Corporation, CORDS · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Opened current CORDS record: forecast 4 November 2026 at 01:30 PST ±26 hours; it shows a broad possible ground track, not a precise impact point or risk estimate.
- NASA’s Swift Observatory to Re-Enter Atmosphere
NASA Science · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Opened NASA's 2 November post. It cites Space Force's 3:30 a.m. EDT ±11-hour estimate, possible fragments between 20.6°S and 20.6°N, and a 1-in-2,100 chance of harm to anyone on Earth.
- SWIFT (NORAD 28485) re-entry prediction
The Aerospace Corporation, CORDS · Primary source · 4 Nov 2026
Opened the current CORDS record on 4 November: nominal re-entry forecast 10:19 UTC on 4 November, uncertainty ±2 hours. The broad possible ground track gives no precise impact point.