The facts
The Associated Press reported on Nov. 3 that floodwaters were receding in affected areas, hundreds of evacuees were returning, rescue teams remained active and cleanup was expected to take weeks. [19]
The National Weather Service listed the San Juan River at Shiprock at 18.7 feet, above its 15.5-foot flood stage, with a warning through Wednesday evening. At Farmington, the Animas River was 12 feet against a 10-foot flood stage, with a warning through Wednesday afternoon; these are separate gauges. [16]
AP reported one confirmed death in floodwater and said police suspect a second death was weather-related. It did not establish a comprehensive death toll across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and the Navajo Nation. [19]
Flagstaff’s Nov. 3 emergency notice said the Oct. 31–Nov. 2 storm produced up to four inches of rain, damaged roads, homes and businesses, and left recovery work underway; the notice gave no full damage assessment. [17]
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs declared a statewide emergency on Nov. 2, announced $200,000 in response funding and directed a statewide recovery plan. [18]
The AP update described water levels receding and residents returning, but also said rescue crews remained busy. Local recovery notices and active National Weather Service warnings show conditions differ by community and river basin. [19][16][17]
Relevant context
Earlier reports documented evacuations and rescues after heavy rain across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and the Navajo Nation. Forecast crest levels in prior updates were forecasts, not observed measurements, and are not carried forward here as current readings. [1][19]
Still unconfirmed
- A comprehensive death or injury count across the affected communities is not established.
- The full flood damage, eventual river crests and duration of all evacuations and road restrictions remain unknown.
- The duration and public-health effects, if any, of the previously reported sewage discharge in Pagosa Springs have not been established.
Corrections & updates
Substantive update, 2 November UTC: added the latest checked USGS stage, the town’s 5:25 p.m. MST evacuation and forecast update, its sewage-discharge notice, and separately attributed NWS/CBS forecasts. At 6 p.m. MST the gauge remained below those forecasts and was still rising; no crest, regional casualty total or discharge duration is asserted.
Substantive update, 2 November UTC: replaced the 6 p.m. gauge snapshot with the latest available provisional USGS observation, 16.81 feet at 8 p.m. MST on 1 November. The feed had no later observation at review time, so this is not described as a crest; the town evacuation and county forecast remain distinct from measured levels.
Substantive update, 2 November UTC: replaced the 8 p.m. USGS snapshot with the latest available provisional observation, 16.03 feet at 9:45 p.m. MST, down from 16.81 feet at 8 p.m. The mandatory town evacuation and earlier county forecast remain separate from observed gauge readings; no crest, reconciled regional casualty count or water-quality result is asserted.
Substantive update, 2 November: replaced the superseded 5:25 p.m. forecast emphasis with the county’s 7 p.m. update as reported by KKCO, including evacuation and shelter instructions and a roughly 22-foot forecast. The latest USGS value returned remains 16.03 feet at 9:45 p.m.; a later request failed with HTTP 503, so no crest is asserted.
Substantive update, 2 November: added the Flagstaff police and fire search for a man reported swept into fast water, with KNAU reporting the search continued Sunday night. The city and local report do not establish death or outcome. Rechecked the USGS feed; it returned no stage later than 9:45 p.m. MST, so the forecast crest remains unverified.
Substantive update, 2 November: added KRQE’s local report quoting the sheriff on evacuation coverage for about 1,000 residences, the orders’ reported duration and the 21.9-foot forecast for 11 p.m. Sunday. Latest verified USGS observation remains 16.03 feet at 9:45 p.m. MST; no later reading or observed crest is asserted.
Substantive update, 2 November UTC: added the National Weather Service's report that the separate Salt River near Roosevelt reached 30.6 feet early Monday, above its 30.1-foot 1993 record. This is not the San Juan River gauge or forecast; the latest verified Pagosa Springs observation remains 16.03 feet at 9:45 p.m. MST on 1 November. No overall regional casualty total or Flagstaff search outcome is asserted.
Substantive update, 2 November UTC: added the NWS river forecast issued 02:37 MST Monday, which projects a 13.54-foot peak at 5 a.m. The latest USGS feed still ends with a 16.03-foot observation at 9:45 p.m. MST Sunday; the forecast is not described as an observed level, and no later stage or crest is verified. Added the current NWS warnings through Monday.
Substantive update, 2 November: AP reported that the Flagstaff man previously missing in floodwater was found dead and that a second man was found dead in a drainage area; police said the second death appeared weather-related but awaited an official cause and manner. Added the NWS forecast of major Little Colorado River flooding at Winslow. No comprehensive regional casualty count or observed forecast crest is claimed.
Substantive update, 3 November UTC: replaced superseded Sunday and Monday gauge forecasts with the current NWS warning snapshot for the San Juan at Shiprock and Animas at Farmington; added AP’s report that waters are receding and hundreds are returning while rescues continue, plus current Arizona and Flagstaff emergency updates. Earlier forecasts are not presented as observed crests. The comprehensive regional death and damage totals remain unknown.
Sources
References support the numbered facts above. Source checks: 3 Nov 2026, 19:57 UTC.
Current NWS river forecasts and warning statements were opened, and the USGS provisional feed was reread. NWS projects 13.54 feet for 5 a.m. Monday; USGS still returns only the 16.03-foot observation from 9:45 p.m. Sunday. That forecast is distinct from the sheriff’s earlier 21.9-foot forecast. No post-forecast stage, crest, reconciled regional casualty total or Flagstaff search outcome is asserted.
- Flash flooding triggers evacuations in Southwest and dire warning for Colorado spa town
The Associated Press · Reporting · 1 Nov 2026
Actual report opened. AP reports mandatory evacuations and a forecast river crest; the forecast is not stated as an observed result.
- DPS conducts rooftop rescues in Sedona during major flooding
KNAU / Arizona Public Radio · Reporting · 1 Nov 2026
Local reporting opened. It reports six rooftop rescues and active emergency operations; it does not give an overall casualty toll.
- Flash Flood Warning for Sedona area, 1 November
National Weather Service, Flagstaff · Primary source · 1 Nov 2026
Official warning page opened; warning validity ended at 5:15 p.m. MST on 1 November and is not described as active now.
- Flood Warning for San Juan River near Pagosa Springs
National Weather Service, Grand Junction · Primary source · 1 Nov 2026
Opened warning issued at 9:30 a.m. MST. It forecast a 22.0-foot crest and compared it with the 17.8-foot 1911 record; this remained a forecast, not an observed level.
- October 2026 Flood Recovery — municipal update
Town of Pagosa Springs · Primary source · 1 Nov 2026
Opened municipal page updated at 5:25 p.m. MST. Mandatory evacuation remained in effect; the town cited a county forecast of at least 19.71 feet around 11 p.m. and reported a sewage discharge into the San Juan River at 11:45 a.m.
- San Juan River at Pagosa Springs (09342500), provisional 1 November stage readings
U.S. Geological Survey · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Official USGS provisional API reread successfully; the 1-day series still ended with a 16.03-foot stage at 9:45 p.m. MST on 1 November. No later gauge value or eventual crest was returned.
- Catastrophic flooding in Pagosa Springs leads to mandatory evacuations
CBS Colorado · Reporting · 1 Nov 2026
Opened report updated at 4:27 p.m. MST; it cited a forecast of 21.87 feet, possibly as early as 6 p.m. The later 6 p.m. USGS stage was 15.94 feet, so the report is treated as a forecast rather than an observed crest.
- Flooding continues in Archuleta County; shelter-in-place requested
KKCO 11 News · Reporting · 1 Nov 2026
Opened local report. It attributes the evacuation/shelter instructions and roughly 22-foot crest forecast to a 7 p.m. county update; it distinguishes sheltering when unable to evacuate from the order to leave if able.
- Possible Drowning
City of Flagstaff · Primary source · 1 Nov 2026
Opened municipal notice: police and fire said a man lost footing near fast-moving water and was not seen resurfacing at about 5:57 p.m. MST; crews were actively searching. It does not report a death or outcome.
- Flagstaff crews search for man missing in flood waters
KNAU / Arizona Public Radio · Reporting · 1 Nov 2026
Opened local report: the search continued Sunday night. It gives no identity or outcome and does not establish a death.
- Pagosa Springs sees record water levels in San Juan River, prompting evacuations
KRQE (Nexstar), via AOL · Reporting · 2 Nov 2026
Opened local report Sunday night, 1 November MST. Sheriff Mike Le Roux said mandatory evacuations had not been lifted since 20 October, about 1,000 residences were in the evacuation zone and a 21.9-foot peak was forecast for 11 p.m. Sunday. It does not confirm the forecast was reached.
- Flood Warning: Salt River near Roosevelt
National Weather Service, Phoenix · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Opened the official warning list; the Phoenix warning reports a 30.6-foot Salt River peak at 1:30 a.m. MST, exceeding its stated 1993 record of 30.1 feet. Kept separate from the Pagosa Springs gauge.
- River Forecast: San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, 2 November
National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Official product opened. Issued 02:37 MST Monday; lists the last observed 16.03-foot stage at 05Z and forecasts 13.54 feet for 12Z. The forecast is distinguished from a measured stage.
- Current Flood Warning statements for Pagosa Springs and southwestern Colorado
National Weather Service · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Current official warning page opened Monday morning. It lists the Pagosa Springs warning through Monday evening and a separate multi-county warning through 4:15 p.m. MST Monday.
- Flooding brings more evacuations in Southwest, alters Election Day in town
The Associated Press · Reporting · 2 Nov 2026
Opened the updated AP report. It says one person died in the flooding and police suspect a second death was weather-related; in Flagstaff, the man seen entering fast floodwater was found dead and a second man was found dead in a storm-drain area, with the latter’s official cause and manner pending.
- Current Flood Warning statements for northern Arizona and nearby basins
National Weather Service, Flagstaff office · Primary source · 3 Nov 2026
Opened the current NWS warning page on Nov. 3. It lists the San Juan River at Shiprock above flood stage with a warning into Wednesday evening and the Animas River at Farmington above flood stage with a warning into Wednesday afternoon.
- Emergency declaration and recovery update, 3 November
City of Flagstaff · Primary source · 3 Nov 2026
Opened the city emergency update: the Oct. 31–Nov. 2 storm produced up to four inches of rain, damaged road infrastructure, homes and businesses, and recovery continued; the notice said the full impact was still being assessed.
- Governor Hobbs declares statewide emergency after severe storms
Office of Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs · Primary source · 2 Nov 2026
Opened the governor’s Nov. 2 announcement of a statewide emergency, $200,000 in response funds and a statewide recovery plan.
- Floodwaters recede in Southwest as hundreds return, but risks linger
The Associated Press · Reporting · 3 Nov 2026
Opened AP’s Nov. 3 update: waters receding, hundreds returning, rescue teams still busy, cleanup expected to take weeks, one confirmed floodwater death and a second suspected weather-related death.