The facts

  1. The WMO’s State of the Climate Update for COP31, released on 9 November, says 2026 is expected to rank among the four warmest years and that 2015–2026 is on track to be the warmest 12-year span. [1][2]

  2. The WMO estimates the global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. [1]

  3. The WMO says El Niño intensified from August and is expected to reach record strength by December, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall into 2027. This is a forecast, not a report of impacts already caused by the latest phase. [1][2]

  4. Global mean sea level reached its highest value in the satellite record, which began in 1993; preliminary measurements through July point to a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat content. [1]

  5. Copernicus estimated an 80% chance that 2026 will be the second-warmest year, behind 2024, and a 20% chance it will equal or exceed 2024. This is a separate probability forecast, not the WMO’s final annual ranking. [2]

Still unconfirmed

  • The final 2026 temperature ranking is not yet established; the WMO update covers data only through September and does not include the latest El Niño impacts.

Sources

References support the numbered facts above. Source checks: 9 Nov 2026, 19:30 UTC.

  1. State of the Climate Update for COP31

    World Meteorological Organization · Primary source · 9 Nov 2026

    Opened the WMO’s 9 November report page and its key messages, covering temperature, El Niño, sea level, ocean heat and the September data cutoff.

  2. 2026 will be among the hottest years on record as a strong El Niño develops

    Le Monde · Reporting · 9 Nov 2026

    Opened original climate coverage by Perrine Mouterde. It reports the WMO findings and separately attributes the Copernicus year-end probability estimate.

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